Durable Manufacturing Contraction Gauge – Updated 12/15/2016

Current Level: 6

The above chart aims to measure the degree of contraction in durable goods manufacturing. I made this indicator with the thought in mind that during a recession we would expect to see this group of manufacturers cut back its activity as consumers cutback on large-ticket purchases. We can see from the chart that gauge values at or above the “Uh-Oh” level of 10 are recessionary signs. Also in the chart is a contraction intensity indicator which is pretty much self-explanatory. Using this indicator we can compare the intensity of various recessions for durable goods manufacturers.

Part-Time for Non-Economic/Economic Reasons Indicator – Updated 1/6/2017

Current Level: 1.137 (+0.023 MoM)

The above chart depicts my custom labor market indicator. It smooths, shifts, and standardizes the part-time workers for non-economics reasons to part-time workers for economic reasons ratio. A level above 1 signals expansion in the labor market while below 1 indicates contraction in the labor market. Consequently, it is usual for the indicator to go below 1 at the onset of recessions.

Household & Nonprofit Net-Worth to GDP Ratio – Updated 9/16/2016

Current Level: 4.83

This chart depicts the net-worth to GDP ratio for households and nonprofit organizations. Check out those bubbles in the 21st century. The largest seems to be the one we are currently in. This could be because stocks inflated net-worth in the dot-com bubble era, real estate boosted net-worth leading up to the financial crisis, and stocks, real-estate, and bonds are all frothy in the current period.